IMD: Northeast monsoon rains to begin in south India on 15 October; very heavy rain likely in Kerala, Tamil Nadu

Northeast monsoon rains are expected to begin over the south peninsula on 15 October, and conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from the remaining parts of the country from the same day, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its press release issued on 14 October.

The IMD forecast a wet spell, with isolated heavy rain over many parts of south peninsular India, from 14 to 19 October.

Heavy rain warnings for the south

According to the IMD bulletin:

• Isolated very heavy rain: Kerala and Mahe, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on 15 October
• Isolated heavy rain: South Interior Karnataka on 15 October; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from 15 to 19 October
• Fairly widespread to widespread rain: Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu from 15 October; Rayalaseema from 15 to 18 October; Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 16–17 October
• Thunderstorms with gusts of 40–50 km/h, up to 60 km/h: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal from 14 to 20 October
• Hot and humid weather: Konkan and Goa (14–16 October), Coastal Karnataka (14–15 October)

For 15 October, the IMD flagged heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places in the hilly areas of Virudhunagar, the Nilgiris, Coimbatore and Theni districts, News Today reported. Rain began in parts of Chennai and its suburbs on 14 October, with heavy showers around Tambaram, DT Next reported. The Regional Meteorological Centre in Chennai said “conditions were favourable for the onset of the northeast monsoon over southern parts of South India,” according to DT Next. As of the latest reports, the onset had not been formally declared.

Delhi and north India: thunderstorms, cooler days

The IMD forecast isolated thunderstorms with gusts of 40–50 km/h, up to 60 km/h, over Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on 14–15 October, with isolated hail possible in several northwest states. Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab are likely to see fairly widespread to widespread rain on 14–15 October.

• Delhi, 15 October: generally cloudy, light rain and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening, with winds gusting to 60 km/h; maximum 28–30°C, minimum 19–21°C
• Delhi, 16 October: light rain and thunderstorms from early morning to noon; maximum 28–30°C, minimum 17–19°C

Isolated to scattered rain is also forecast for Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and the northeastern states over the coming days, according to the IMD. The bulletin did not mention any cyclone or low-pressure area. It noted cyclonic circulations over the Comorin area, north Haryana and other regions.

Readers should check IMD’s district-wise warnings for the latest updates, as forecasts can change.

Sources: India Meteorological Department, DT Next, Webdunia, News Today