Bay of Bengal depression may hit Andhra coast as very severe cyclone Arnab on 28 October: IMD

The weather system in the Bay of Bengal has strengthened into a depression, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) now expects it to hit the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday, 28 October, as a very severe cyclonic storm. That is a sharper forecast than earlier in the week, when the department spoke only of a cyclonic storm heading for the north Andhra and south Odisha coasts.

According to IMD inputs reported by PTI, the system is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October. Sustained winds at landfall could be 115-125 kmph, with gusts of up to 140 kmph.

Where the system stands

The well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal became a depression on Saturday, 24 October. At 5.30 pm that day it lay about 510 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman Islands, 820 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 910 km east-southeast of Kakinada.

The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) said on Sunday morning that the depression had moved slowly, at about 5 kmph, over the previous six hours. The Hans India, citing APSDMA, put it about 880 km from Visakhapatnam and 1,150 km from Bapatla.

IMD’s projected timeline is as follows. The system should become a deep depression on Sunday, 25 October, and a cyclonic storm by Monday morning. It is then expected to grow into a severe cyclonic storm by Tuesday morning and a very severe cyclonic storm as it nears the coast on Wednesday.

Once it reaches cyclone strength, the storm is expected to be named Arnab, DT Next reported. Bangladesh contributed the name Arnab, which means “ocean” in Bengali, to the regional cyclone naming list.

Rain warnings and fishermen advisory

Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam could see isolated thunderstorms on Monday. Scattered heavy to very heavy rain, with extremely heavy falls at isolated places, is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by heavy rain on Thursday. Rayalaseema is also likely to get thundershowers.

In Odisha, IMD’s earlier bulletins warned of rain picking up from 26 October, with extremely heavy rain possible on 28 and 29 October. Red warnings have been issued for Puri, Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri districts, according to OrissaPOST. The forecast also mentions extremely heavy rain at isolated places in Telangana.

Andhra Pradesh has told fishermen to stay off the sea until 29 October. Officials said that of the 30,043 fishing boats out at sea, 29,952 had come back by Saturday, and the remaining 91 were expected to reach shore that night.

States step up preparations

Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu reviewed the situation and asked officials to stay alert and warn people living in low-lying areas. Control rooms have been set up to track the system and the boats still at sea. APSDMA Managing Director Prakhar Jain urged residents to follow official advisories.

Odisha has cancelled holidays for government employees. National Disaster Response Force and Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force teams are on standby for deployment if needed.

Tamil Nadu is not expected to take a direct hit. The Chennai Regional Meteorological Centre has forecast only moderate rain with thunder at isolated places in several districts.

The landfall point and timing could still shift as the system organises over the sea. IMD is expected to fine-tune its forecast in the coming bulletins.

Sources

• The Federal (PTI): Bay depression intensifies; Andhra coast braces for very severe cyclone on Oct 28
• DT Next: Cyclone Arnab likely to intensify into very severe storm, cross Andhra coast on Oct 28
• The Hans India: Cyclone update: Depression to approach AP today, rains for five days
• OrissaPOST: Cyclone update: Odisha on alert as cyclone threat looms, red warnings issued
• Vajiram & Ravi: Cyclone Arnab 2026, Location, Naming, Tracker, Latest Updates