IMD keeps yellow alerts for Kerala districts till 20 October; heavy rain forecast for South Interior Karnataka

Wet weather is set to continue across Kerala and southern Karnataka well into next week, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) keeping yellow alerts in place for several Kerala districts through 20 October and flagging heavy spells over South Interior Karnataka until at least 22 October.

The forecasts come from bulletins the weather office released on Friday, 16 October. The current warnings are all at the yellow level, which signals the possibility of heavy rain of roughly 7 to 11 cm in a 24-hour period at one or two spots in a district.

Kerala: district-wise yellow alerts

The IMD’s Thiruvananthapuram centre placed all 14 districts of the state under a yellow alert on 16 October. For the days that follow, the alerts narrow to specific districts:

• 17 October (Saturday): Idukki, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram
• 18 October (Sunday): Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad
• 19 October (Monday): Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Kannur, Kasaragod
• 20 October (Tuesday): Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram

The centre has issued only a general heavy-rain outlook for Kerala on 21 and 22 October, without naming districts. Lakshadweep also figures in the 20 October warning.

Earlier in the week the situation was more severe. According to Kerala Kaumudi, the IMD had put Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki and Ernakulam on an orange alert for 15 October, warning of very heavy rain in isolated places. An alert list carried by the paper on 14 October for 17 October named Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki and Ernakulam; the IMD’s newer 16 October bulletin has since revised that day’s list as shown above. Readers should check the latest district bulletin, as alerts are updated daily.

Karnataka: south interior region most affected

The IMD issues its Karnataka outlook by sub-division rather than by district. Its all-India bulletin on Friday morning said:

• 16 October: heavy to very heavy rain likely at isolated places in South Interior Karnataka; heavy rain in Coastal Karnataka
• 17 October: heavy rain possible in both Coastal and South Interior Karnataka
• 18 to 22 October: isolated heavy rain continues to be forecast for South Interior Karnataka
• North Interior Karnataka: no heavy-rain warning, though gusty winds of 40 to 50 km/h are possible on 16 and 17 October

Thunderstorms with lightning are expected over Coastal Karnataka on Saturday and Sunday, and gusty winds of 30 to 40 km/h may accompany storms in the south interior region and in Kerala over the weekend, the bulletin said.

What is driving the rain

The weather office attributes the spell to an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea near Lakshadweep, with a trough stretching from it towards the northwest Arabian Sea. A similar circulation over south coastal Andhra Pradesh is also present. The bulletin did not refer to a low-pressure area.

The Daily Jagran, reporting on the IMD forecast for Saturday, said neighbouring Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal could see isolated heavy to very heavy rain, while Andhra Pradesh may get thunderstorms and strong winds.

Residents in hilly districts such as Idukki and Wayanad are usually advised to stay alert to local advisories on landslides and waterlogging during such spells.

Sources: IMD Thiruvananthapuram, IMD All India Bulletin, Kerala Kaumudi, The Daily Jagran