Israel election exit polls show hung Knesset: Netanyahu bloc at 50 seats, Eisenkot-led camp at 52–53

Exit polls from Israel’s general election on Tuesday, 27 October, point to a hung Knesset. In the 120-seat house, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc nor the opposition camp led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot is projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority. Likud remains the largest single party. Arab-led parties are set for their best result on record, which leaves both main blocs short.

What each exit poll showed

Israel’s main television channels released exit polls when voting ended at 10 pm local time. Their projections, as reported by Israel Hayom, Ynet and Arutz Sheva, were:

• Kan 11: Likud 25, Yashar (Eisenkot) 21, B’Yachad (Naftali Bennett) 14. Opposition bloc 53, Netanyahu bloc 50, Arab parties 17.
• Channel 12: Likud 24, Yashar 22, B’Yachad 12. Opposition bloc 52, Netanyahu bloc 50, Arab parties 18 (Joint List 11, Ra’am 7).
• Channel 13: Likud 25, Yashar 23, B’Yachad 14. Opposition bloc 53, Netanyahu bloc 50, Arab parties 17.
• i24NEWS: Likud 27, Yashar 20. Netanyahu bloc 55, Eisenkot camp 49, Arab parties 16, as reported by Business Standard.
• Channel 14: Right-wing bloc 60, one seat short of a majority, according to Arutz Sheva.

The three main broadcasters also put Yair Golan’s Democrats at 9–10 seats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu at 7–9. Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism-Zehut were each projected at about six to eight seats. Parties need 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset, and several smaller lists appear to have fallen short.

Early counting and turnout

Counting continued overnight. Middle East Eye, citing the Central Elections Committee, reported that more than 1.2 million ballots had been counted by 5:20 am Israel time on Wednesday. At that point Likud had about 23.4% of valid votes, Yashar 15.7% and Bennett’s party 8.5%. These partial figures are early and do not translate directly into seats.

The committee put turnout at 77.7% when polls closed, 7.1 points above 2022. Reports describe it as the highest in decades, though they disagree on the exact benchmark year. Ynet reported that more than 650,000 double-envelope ballots, cast by soldiers and other special voters, have to be checked and counted separately. Those votes could push parties close to the threshold above or below it.

Coalition maths

On these projections, Netanyahu’s camp would need about 11 more seats. Eisenkot’s camp would need eight or nine, unless it relies on Arab parties, either inside a coalition or supporting it from outside. Eisenkot wrote on X that the public had dismissed the Netanyahu government and said he would work with partners to form a new one. Gideon Sa’ar, a Netanyahu ally, said the opposition’s celebrations were premature and pointed out that Likud was still the largest party. The Jerusalem Post noted that past exit polls have differed from final results, sometimes by enough seats to change the outcome.

What happens next

Business Standard reported that the count is expected to be completed by 30 October. The Central Elections Committee had warned that it could continue until Friday morning. Official results are scheduled for 4 November. After that, President Isaac Herzog will consult each elected party and ask one lawmaker to try to form a government. That lawmaker has up to 42 days to put together a coalition of at least 61 members. If no one succeeds, Israel could be headed for another election, with the current government staying on in a caretaker role.

Sources

• Israel Hayom: Israel election 2026 exit polls: Full results
• Ynet: Exit polls, Likud largest as Arab parties surge
• Arutz Sheva: Dramatic exit polls: Likud leads, but no clear winner
• Business Standard: Israel exit polls show no clear winner, Netanyahu’s Likud largest party
• The Jerusalem Post: Israel election exit polls: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot both fail to win majority
• Middle East Eye: Over 1.2 million votes counted in Israeli elections